Scott's books

The Catcher in the Rye
To Kill a Mockingbird
The Great Gatsby
Where the Sidewalk Ends
Animal Farm
Slaughterhouse Five
Of Mice and Men
A Tale of Two Cities
The Count of Monte Cristo
Under the Tuscan Sun
The Da Vinci Code
The Bourne Identity
Kiss the Girls
Into the Wild
Into Thin Air
The Fellowship of the Ring
The Hobbit
Harry Potter and the Philosopher's stone
1984
Angels and Demons


Scott Reighard's favorite books »
}

Friday, April 23, 2010

Vikings 2010 Post Round One Analysis: Pepto Bismal Time

Okay, it's Friday and many Vikings fans sat up last night only to hear the 30th pick was traded to, of all teams, a division rival. Being that I am just an armchair wannabe football executive, let's look at today and tomorrow and what the Vikings could very well do to help situations immediate and future. I know, this looks like hindsight is 20/20, or Monday morning QB, but just go with me here.

In fairness to myself, trying to pick picks is like trying to shoot a quarter in a dark room. Yet we soldier on and further inflict even more stress on ourselves. So, here goes, revision of the Vikings draft, although there are some overlaps of an earlier article of mine.

Quarterback: Do they or don't they? Clausen, McCoy? Or do they consider Pike, Lefevour, or Snead a little later? One thing is for sure, this could help in 2011 or 2012, or set us back if we believe Tarvaris is heir apparent and still falls on his face. We are actually in a pickle. Brett has one more year and then it's open QB season. What if the Vikings opt out of this draft for a QB and T-Jack fails? People will look back on what could have been. As a wannabe executive, I try to drop another 5 - 8 picks and grab McCoy.

O-Line: McKinnie is, well, McKinnie, Hutchison is climbing the age ladder and Hererra is teetering. I have no doubt something will be addressed. They could go Asamoah (G, Illinois) in the 2nd round, or hold off and go guard or center late 2nd or 3rd. If they drop the 34th pick, maybe 2 or 3 lineman could be chosen.

D-Line: Here the pickings are mixed. No doubt Pat Williams will retire after this next year, and Kennedy and Guion are temporary stop-gaps. Maybe Mount Cody (ALA), or Price (UCLA) in the 2nd, maybe Cam Thomas (UNC) late 2nd. After Thomas the talent pool drops off and at best you are looking at average starters or back ups.

DB's: Decision time, but this always seems to be a deep field. Vikings are okay for the interim, but looking a few years down the road could push their hand in the 2nd round. I am not necessarily sold on Cook from UVA, and Arenas (BAMA) at 5'9" hurts him. Again, I think this is now 3rd and 4th round territory for the Vikings. As for safety, I am not as big a Mays fan as I was last year. The 2 guys I am intrigued by are: Jones (LSU), and Wright (FLA). I see a definite 3rd here.

LB’s: I hate to sound redundant, but I am worried about Henderson’s return, and I am not sure if Brinkley is the long term answer. I would love Sean Lee in round 2, but most likely it will not happen, there are other areas they will go. I am looking at Angerer (IOWA) or Butler (Washington) 4th round.

WR: I know, what? I have given this some thought and there are some players that the Vikings could look at if they pick up another pick or two: Decker (MN) would have to be a late 2, but that is too early due to other needs. I am looking more at 4th and 5th round guys that could come in and contribute special teams: Jordan Shipley is an interesting thought for returns and a possible 4th receiver and he could be there as a 4th rounder. Also, there is Denario Alexander (Missouri) at 6’5”. You could also consider Jacoby Ford (Clemson) as a return man since Reynaud is now a RB.

Okay, enough said, let’s do this. Here is another stab at a revised draft post first round. (What a cheater, how do I sleep at night?)

If the order holds:

34: Trade down to anywhere from 38 (Cleve), 39 (Oak), or 41 (Bills), or at worst 48 (Panthers). Most likely the team that trades gets Clausen. Believe it or not, the Vikings are in a great position here at 34.

Let’s say they trade down to 41: Vikings get pick 107 and 209: Colt McCoy, QB

2nd round: (62): Lamar Houston, DT, Texas

3rd round: (93): Mike Johnson, G, Alabama

4th round: (100): Pat Angerer, LB, Iowa

4th round: (107 from Bills): Major Wright, S, Florida

5th round: Trade 161 and 167 to move up to 153: Eric Olsen, G, Notre Dame

6th round: (199): Brian Jackson, CB, Okalahoma

7th round: (209 from Bills): Kyle Bosworth, LB, UCLA

7th round: (214): Blair White, WR, Mich. St.

7th round: (237): A kicker here, or another DB.

Of course my chances of this even being remotely close are about as good as winning Powerball, maybe.

Friday, April 16, 2010

MInnesota Vikings 2010 Draft Outlook

As with all drafts teams face an immediate situation, as well as future considerations, and since the Minnesota Vikings are my favorite team, who were just one less turnover (if you will) away from heading to the Super Bowl, we (fans) gather together to feel the excitement of this year’s draft.

Now, as I said earlier, teams look to the immediate and to the future, and with the Vikings here are my thoughts on the direction the Vikings should draft. Bear in mind that unless you are in the locker room or in the so-called war room, we have no idea as to what their (draft player) board looks like or what their thoughts are on given players they have evaluated. In other words, this is one big guessing game, so let’s have some fun. I always judge a draft this way and it’s pretty simple. A first round pick is someone you expect to start year one. A second round pick can start year one, but most likely year two. A third rounder, year three and Rounds 4-7 fall into the three year expectation. Now that does not figure into special teams because some guys are strictly special teams players and can start year one. I didn’t say it was a scientific formula, just my take on it.

First, let’s look at some immediate needs for the Vikings. One area is in the defensive backfield area. With Winfield getting up there in years and Griffin coming off ACL surgery, and the question marks behind whether Johnson or Williams can handle the safety duties remains to be seen, this area is a MUST need. Need scale from 1-10: 8

Second, middle linebacker: With the loss of Henderson to a horrific injury and with football now in doubt, one would have to ask whether Brinkley can fill in to the point of the Vikings not immediately addressing this area. There doesn’t seem to be any real depth here because it is apparent that Farwell is basically a special teams star and the jury is out on Onatolu, who seems too light at 227 lbs. I am going to take a stab at this, Leber moves to the middle and the Vikings draft an OLB because there are more choices and the position is deeper. Need scale from 1-10: 6

Third, the Vikings could use some reassurance along the offensive line. It’s a solid unit, but it had some really shaky moments, and a great defense will exploit that. McKinnie for all of his issues is still a solid LT, although a trade would not surprise me if they could land a pick in that area, or where they can move Loadholt to LT and move someone out to RT, or draft a RT a little later in the 3rd or 4th round. Need scale from 1-10: 7

Fourth, running back: I think the Vikings are pretty happy with what they have here because they could have easily signed LT or Westbrook, but they chose not to, so my take is that, yes they might address this sometime in the draft, but unless some unbelievable opportunity presents itself they feel pretty good with Peterson, Young, Johnson and now Reynaud. Plus, don’t forget about Harvin as an added dimension to the running game. I loved Taylor though. Man, losing him was like losing one of your best dogs on a sled team, no disrespect intended. Need scale from 1-10: 3

Lastly, quarterback: I have to say that I am a believer in Favre. In the past I saw him play maybe four or five times a year, but this past year I saw him play about seventeen times and the legend is reality, too bad we couldn’t get him about four years ago, I know we’d be toting some Super Bowl bling. Anyhow, I am hopeful that he returns and if the Vikings have an opportunity to draft a QB they should do it, but again, more on that later. This is looking to the future, for now, he’s as good as there is. With him we are a perennial 12-4 team, without him 10-6 or 9-7. He’s worth at least 3 more victories a year. Need scale from 1-10: 8 (if they can get the right guy)

Okay, so here we go it’s draft day and as of today (Friday, April 16) the Vikings draft at #’s 30, 62, 93, 128, 161, 167, 199, 237. Here is my dream draft with a few other possibilities thrown in for each round.

Quarterback: Colt McCoy, Texas. Here’s why: Yeah, he’s only 6’1” but he is the most accurate QB coming out of the draft. He is a winner. He is smart and athletic. Realistically: Will he be there at #30? If he is and the Vikings pass then their interest in a franchise QB is not there and if they do draft a QB it will be 3rd or 4th round perhaps.

Possibility: Tim Tebow, Florida. This is an intriguing pick because everyone knows Tim is not ready for NFL play yet, but Lord knows his leadership is without equal and he will outwork everybody else. Again, I say intriguing because you are going to have to wait on him at least 2 years. Can the Vikings afford that? If so, don’t be surprised.

Earlier I had Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan, but there seems to be problems with arm strength, and Childress seems to desire really strong arms. I don’t know, maybe because it sounded like Favre.

Offensive Line: Rodger Saffold, T, Indiana. There is a lot of good stuff written about this kid, but since he plays at Indiana you don’t see a lot of press on him. Could be a sleeper pick, and could definitely be there in round 2, maybe.

Vladimir Ducasse, T, UMass. Another intriguing pick that could be a sleeper or a bust. Book on him says great upside, but UMASS is not known for its NFL lineage.

Jon Asamoah, G, Illinois. Pretty solid all around. This does not seem to be a deep position in this year’s draft, so it’s likely that the top 2 or 3 guards will go fast, and Asamoah is top 2. Is he worth a #30 pick if a better positioned athlete is there remains to be seen, but if he’s thereat the end of round 2 (doubtful), it would be a bounty type pick for the Vikings. My guess if he is not there at all the Vikings will wait until round 3 or 4 to grab a backup G/C type, but even the Center position does not look deep, unless you think that a guy like Eric Olsen, C, Notre Dame could switch to Guard, but at 6’4” that seems unlikely. Other considerations are: Mitch Petrus, G, Arkansas, or Mike Johnson, G, Alabama.

Linebackers: Rolando McClain, Alabama will be gone by #30, and again, not a real deep position to draft high here, so the other viable choice is Dan Conner, ILB, Penn State. Need I say more about most PSU linebackers? He’s a solid 2nd round pick, but at #30, I don’t know if the Vikings take that chance. Is he a Chad Greenway type pick? Chad was a #16 pick but incredibly athletic and plays outside. Dan could be a great stopper in the middle, intelligence, leadership, and tackling are his high marks.

If ILB is a later round pick there are some possibilities: Brandon Spikes, Florida, Pat Angerer, Iowa. With a name like Angerer you know he’s tough and mean.

OLB: Here the field is deeper, which makes me believe the Vikings could switch Leber to middle if they get the right young flyer outside. My guess that the top 3 of Kindle, Weatherspoon and Graham are gone by #30, but if one is there they might grab him. Most likely Weatherspoon seems to be the one that might drop to 30. Again, this is contingent that my overall first round favorite, McCoy is not there. However, there are about 4 guys who are very intriguing and could be solid number 2 picks: Navarro Bowman, Penn State, Jerry Hughes, TCU, Eric Norwood, South Carolina, and Darryl Washington, TCU.

Defensive Backs: Now, I know that I gave this an immediate need of 8, but this is a deep field. The Vikings can definitely get pretty much the guy they want here at 30 because the field is relatively deep, but overall blue chippers, there are only about 3: Joe Haden, Florida, Earl Thomas, Texas, and Kyle Wilson, Boise State. There are some marginal blue chippers in Kareem Jackson, Alabama, and Kevin McCourty from Rutgers. However, one of these will be there for them if they so choose. Deeper in the draft you could see names like Kevin Thomas, USC, or Walter McFadden, Auburn, Jerome Murphy, South Florida.

Safety: Well, we know for sure that Eric Berry, Tennessee will NOT be there at 30 but there is a possibility that Taylor Mays, USC may be there, but now the word on Mays is that he is more of an OLB type; that he has problems in coverage, and with today’s offenses you cannot have someone guessing back there. If they take Mays I will be disappointed, let Dallas have him. He could turn out to be an Ed Reed type, or a bust. I don’t think this is a #30 type pick they need, so if it is a 2nd round or 3rd round type pick my money is on Morgan Burnett, Georgia Tech or Major Wright, Florida.

Finally, Defensive Line: Looking to the future because this is most likely Pat Williams last year and Kevin Williams turns 30. I feel pretty confident in the back ups with Guion, Kennedy and Evans, but if there is a bull built stud that can plug and disrupt by all means, draft one. Drafting at 30 is a good position because a DT taken at 30 doesn’t have the same pressure as one in the upper or middle of the round. It’s safe to say that Suh, Nebraska, McCoy, Oklahoma, and Dan Williams, Tennessee will most likely be gone, so that leaves a couple of interesting guys like, Jared Odrick, Penn State, although I think he’s too tall, and shorter guards can get leverage under the 6’5” Odrick. Also, there’s Lamarr Houston, Texas. Had DWI in 2008, but clean since. This guy is an interesting pick because he has good size, strength and speed. He’s no Kevin Williams, but the problem for the Vikings is that he may be too much like Williams, build wise; whereas a Cam Thomas from North Carolina is 330 lbs. If you have a typical 4-3 defense most of the times you want the heavyweight and the light-heavyweight in the middle; one being the big run stuffer, occupy two blockers, while the light-heavyweight scoots through for the glory.

Well, there you have it, but here is my final, final, ultimate results draft; well, call it a dream draft of number one’s. I will only project out to pick number 128 though. They have 4 more picks beyond that.

At pick 30: Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

62: Major Wright, S, Florida
93: Pat Angerer, ILB, Iowa, or Darryl Washington, OLB, TCU
128: Mitch Petrus, G, Arkansas
Finally, pick 237: Best athlete available regardless of position.

The Vikings will look for DB’s, another LB position for special teams, maybe even a TE. Don’t be surprised if they take a position that is not necessarily a need because of the best athlete factor. Also, with 8 picks they could package a two picks for one to move up if they see someone they like, but feel like they will be gone soon. That would be a good move to give up maybe your 161 and 199 to move up to a late 140 to mid 150’s choice. Feel free to call me insane, out of my mind, illogical, genius, on the mark, whatever, it's all fun and games until someone loses an eye, but I am willing to take my chances here. Have a great one!

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

What is at Stake: Part II

Buy One Get One Free, or in the case of the government: Take One Take Over Another Free

The title sounds good doesn’t it? I mean, who doesn’t like by one get one free, until you realize you’re paying full price only to get the second one free and that really it’s only half a deal. Well, kind of sounds like the new health care plan, but in this case it’s the federal government that gets the deal not us. I hope you read Part I of the health care situation I addressed; this is a follow up but with a different element. Let’s see how I do here.

I think that something almost as egregious as the health care reform is the student loan program they slipped into the massive 2,700 page reform bill. I have to tell you, only FOXNEWS mentioned it. I saw nothing of it in other media outlets, and I try to watch several other news sources like NBC, CBS, CNN, ABC, and BLOOMBERG. I am absolutely appalled by this underhandedness that has taken place.

I have a daughter about to graduate from college. This past year has been the worst year for getting money for college. I was approved, as a private borrower for an additional 5K, but the school said they were returning that amount because my daughter supposedly got enough in money to cover her senior year. I went round and round with the school but their position was rather resolute, and my daughter’s senior year has been one of penny pinching and bleeding us of our personal savings. It’s too long to discuss, but let’s just say they (school) claimed there were new federal guidelines; that loan money had to go directly to the school and not to the borrower so often practiced in the past. Now I don’t have a problem with that, other than the fact that the school takes about 10-14 days to cut a check to the student. The real problem is that they were dictating to me what I could have for my daughter’s education, and trust me, this is just the beginning. I hope you all are aware of how this is going to work.

The idea behind this loan takeover is simple, the federal government has control over the student loans, and they make the money rather than private industry banks who are the bad guys. Now, the govt. would offer reasonable rates, and an attractive repayment system, but the borrower will be strictly limited to what they can borrow based on school estimates. So, if you need that laptop for your kid, or you want to dress up their dorm room, etc you better come up with the cash because you most likely will be given a number that is estimated on tuition, room and board, and that’s about it. Also, there are some trigger gimmicks in there like, the student loan payments will be capped at 10% of a person’s income, and if they pay diligently for 20 years the remaining amount will be forgiven..

You can skip the part in the brackets and continue below if you’d like. This is just a longer answer to the loan borrowing question.

[Okay, so let’s say you borrow a total of 80,000 during your years in school, your payment would be $573.14 a year at 6%. It is estimated that you will need an annual salary of at least $68,776.80 to be able to afford to repay this loan in full at around 138K. This estimate assumes that 10% of your gross monthly income will be devoted to repaying your student loans. This corresponds to a debt-to-income ratio of 1.2. So, what if you don’t get that 68K job? Don’t fret here comes the federal government to the rescue. They would cap your loan amount at 10% of gross, so let’s say you only make 35K, that’s 3,500 a year. And let’s say your income goes up 2.2% each year, at the end of those 20 years you would be earning roughly 54K. With the government plan you would pay back about 105K based on the 10% rule, and on its face that looks good. That is if you pay in good faith; however, and here is the sticking point, if you at any time defer, request hardship, or otherwise postpone any payments the federal deal is null and void.]

Also, by taking over the lending they have in essence taken away the private sector. I didn’t know it was against the law or unethical for banks to make money. And what about all this oversight President Obama preaches? Okay, so maybe private sector businesses need some watching over, instead their idea is just to say, “Let’s just take over the whole thing.” Very much like so many of the mortgage situations; think of who owns most of the mortgages in America now? Don’t you all get it? This is the beginning, and you can argue otherwise, and that is okay. You can talk of equality, fairness, re-distribution, etc. but someday all this is going to come due, so what is the federal government doing? They are taking over several industries that can become what they so criticized the banks for, “creating cash cows.” Pretty soon all cars will be financed through the federal government. If they can’t tax us, then they’ll just take over large segments of interest earning businesses and do it that way.

Again, this insertion into a health care bill, which by the way, I didn’t know student loans had anything to do with health care, but when you crunch the numbers you can see how they squeezed this in there to compensate for the horrendous numbers that universal health care will cost. This isn’t just an off the top observation, it’s a common sense transparent view of what we face in the coming years.

And another thing, why is so much of this being deferred until 2014? Also, didn’t you notice the President’s clever rhetoric about drilling? We’re going to do studies over the next several years. Why? We know now, why not now? Why wait four or five years? Do you think it has anything to do with trying to get so-called bi-partisan support for the Cap and Tax the administration wants to pass? But I am going to have to save that for another day. Back to the original question, me thinks something is rotten in the state of Denmark. I am trying to piece together all this deferred status and implementation stuff, and I believe it is all about trying to sock away enough money to pay for it initially, look good doing it, and then you can slowly trickle in other taxes such as the VAT. Don’t know what that is? Look at Europe. If you have ever been there, do you wonder why a soda costs three dollars, or that your breakfast costs eleven or twelve dollars? Keep an eye out for this one, it’s the hidden tax. It’s the one you don’t see because it is added into the value of the product, and that value added goes to the government. So, what’s wrong with that Scott, if it helps us pay for our social programs? Ever wonder why most poor people shop at Wal-Mart? This is a regressive tax no matter how you look at it.

Well, it has officially begun and we are to blame. You get what you get when you vote for who you vote for. Fifty four percent of the voters voted for Mr. Obama and his gang, so we deserve it. Of course if we don’t like the direction we can change things, or can we? Is there any guarantee that Mickey Mouse won’t show up and vote in November, or Donald Duck for that matter? I am being facetious, but the point is, when a country becomes this divided there is a more likelihood of voter fraud going on because each side worries about victory. What has happened to us? I asked the original question, what is at stake? Well, I ask, what is at stake for us? Can we do anything about it when growing numbers seem to support a move toward a democratic-socialist government? Can we alter a growing apathy that exists within the youth of this culture? A culture of people who have been given basically everything they want but have had to do little to achieve or work for it? Is that not a ripe culture for handouts that on their face look good? But my final question is this, at what price? At what price America?