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Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Minnesota Vikings 2014: An Early Look at the Draft

I think I can speak for most Vikings fan when I say that, thus far, the season has been beyond disappointing. Yes, there are other storied franchises under-performing: Giants, Steelers, Ravens, and Falcons, but the expectations for the Vikings were that they could take the next step.

Last year ended on a fairly high note, with the exception of a poor playoff effort, but by most accounts, most people felt that the Vikings just needed a backup quarterback.

Eight games in and the jury is still out. Ponder played his best game of the year against the Cowboys, but many fans feel the Vikings are still searching for their next franchise QB.

I would argue that Christian Ponder has helped this team to three (Chicago, Cleveland, and now Dallas) late 4th quarter leads only to see them wither by way of a defense that just can’t stop a team when it really counts. If the Vikings win those games they are 4-4 and still in the playoff hunt. I would also argue the Vikings made a huge mistake playing Freeman against a Giants team that was equally bad on defense, and we handed them their first victory, but this is not revisionist history. The Vikings are 1-7.

I have long been a supporter of Christian Ponder, but if he doesn’t flash here in the next couple of weeks, his tenure in Minnesota is in the waning stages and a vigorous search for a new quarterback shifts into high gear.
The following slides will look at positions I feel are of need. Also, there are potential players to look at in the draft the Vikings should consider or may have a shot at. This is purely a speculative look because there is a lot of time between now and the 2014 draft, but as Americans we always love to look ahead, sometimes putting the cart before the horse, but let’s have some fun with this.

First order of business: A New Dawn at the Quarterback Position?

Having three quarterbacks on the roster is like deciding between the Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. Some support Ponder, others support Freeman, and the others support Cassel. There could be an argument for all three, but here is a point to be made before any speculation of a new quarterback even begins.
If the season continues its downward slide, I don’t see how the organization can hang on to either coordinator, or head coach for that matter. My last article focused on possible head coach replacements. Here is the link: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1824803-2013-vikings-pivot-point-time-to-consider-a-new-direction if you would like to see my thought process on who should/could replace Frazier.
Here is something to ponder, no pun intended. If Frazier is fired, the new coach will have three quarterbacks from which to choose to run the show the first year or two. This is realistic because the only quarterback entering this draft who is considered NFL ready is Teddy Bridgewater, and I am sure he is talking to real estate agents in the Jacksonville area. Some will argue for others, but we’ll get to that.
It is safe to say that unless the Vikings foolishly grab a quarterback with their, most likely, Top-10, perhaps even Top-5 pick, then it will most assuredly happen in Round Two.
I am of the mindset that the Vikings keep all three quarterbacks on the roster, unless they get some interesting trade calls for one of them. The new coach has three quarterbacks who offer their own skill set, and deciding on a quarterback would depend on the type of offense he plans to run. Once the decision is made, one of the remaining quarterbacks could be dealt; therefore, drafting a quarterback in the 2014 draft would be the third quarterback until he is ready.

Case for Ponder: There are Ponder haters out there, and there are those who are willing to be more patient. A coach with a read-option or spread mindset would consider keeping Ponder because he is more athletic of the three. Running a 4.6-40 yard dash, Ponder has shown some real flash as a runner-scoring four times with his feet- and this might enable him to see the field better. Someone like Shanahan from the Redskins or Greg Roman from the 49ers may consider Ponder as the go to guy initially. Also, if you watch the start of the Cowboys game, the Vikings came out in the shotgun and had a spread/read-option look and Ponder looked very confident.
Before everyone gives up on Ponder just go to this website, courtesy of NFL.com: http://www.nfl.com/player/christianponder/2495215/situationalstats. I am all about perspective, and maybe this will give some readers perspective. The biggest knock I have on Ponder is that he has to improve his 4th quarter numbers, but part of that may go into conservative play calling as well.

Case for Freeman: Freeman fits that prototypical NFL quarterback: strong arm, great size, grittiness, and ability to escape. If the new coach comes in say Mike Sherman, he would most likely be interested in Freeman because he would have the skill set that Sherman likes for his offense. Freeman has enough mobility to run what Sherman runs.
To be fair, here are Freeman’s situational stats, and I didn’t even include this year. Here is last year’s, again, courtesy of NFL.com. And arguably, the guy had some pretty good talent around him.  

Case for Cassel: This is the poor man’s pick. A new coach could keep Cassel as the bridge to his new guy. Ponder and Freeman could muddy the waters, so allowing them to go or be traded might be in the next coach’s best interest in order to avoid that dreaded quarterback controversy
Cassel offers professionalism and experience, attributes a coach may want in a veteran player. He has shown stretches of good play and would lend good leadership to a young squad.
If a new coach comes in he has the luxury of having guys who have significant number of starts and at least has something to work with initially until his quarterback pick is ready.

       Quarterback 2014: In the cards?
The 2014 quarterback class could be considered a great class, or just another over-hyped one in this day and age of 24-hour coverage.
Here are the seniors with their projections, as per CBSSports.com http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2014/QB.
Zach Mettenberger, LSU: 6-5, 235, Round 1-2
Derek Carr, Fresno State: 6-3, 215, Round 1-2
Tajh Boyd, Clemson: 6-1, 225, Round 2
Aaron Murray, Georgia: 6-1, 208, Round 2
Here are others:
Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville, junior: 6-3, 205, Round 1
Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, rSo: 6-0, 210, Round 1
Marcus Mariota, Oregon, rSo: 6-4 212, Round 1
Brett Hundley, UCLA, rSo, 6-3, 222, Round 2
Other than the seniors, there is no guarantee these other quarterbacks will even enter the draft. Most feel that the two most likely to come out will be Manziel and Bridgewater. Other than Bridgewater, do you throw Manziel right in there from the get-go?
If all of them stay in school, what would that do to the draft? What would that mean to the Vikings? If the Vikings are interested in one of the seniors, there is a possibility that all of these guys may drop to the late Round 1 or early Round 2.
However, would you trust Mettenberger to step right in? Carr? Boyd?
There are no Andrew Luck’s in this draft. I would argue there are no RGIII’s, so what do the Vikings do?
Also, each of these quarterbacks offers a certain skill set. You don’t draft Mettenberger if you plan on running the read option.
My bet is Bridgewater and Manziel come out, but the others choose to stay, especially guys like Mariota and Hundley, whose teams look to be National Champion contenders next year. It would make sense because then they would grab all the draft headlines in 2015.
Final analysis: I am not here to predict who the Vikings will draft. They may not choose one this year based on who comes out and who stays in college, or if they have a guy on the roster they believe in.
I have watched all these quarterbacks play, albeit, here and there, and I have been somewhat impressed with Carr, Mettenberger, and I love Murray, but Murray is too similar to Ponder.
Derek Carr has been a 3-year starter and so far has 91 TDs and 20 INTs in his career. He has a quick release and definitely displays great leadership. I think he is better than his brother David, who got a pretty raw deal for an NFL career. He has great mobility, effortless motion, good vision, and pedigree, but he does not get under center, so that adjustment may take time. With that said, Derek reminds me of another No. 4, but not quite yet. He would be my first choice.
Zach Mettenberger has the size and arm, no doubt. He is a two and a half-year starter and has put up pretty good numbers as well: 32 TDs, 14 INTs. Mettenberger runs a more traditional style of offense and his adjustment to the NFL could be quicker.
Tajh Boyd kind of reminds me of Donovan McNabb, but he lacks McNabb’s size and speed, so I say no thank you.
I think Hundley, Mariota, and Manziel should all stay for one more year at least.

2.       Guard: Too Much Push Up the Middle
I think it’s safe to say that teams like to blitz the Vikings up the middle. Our weakness along the line lay at both guard positions. Charlie Johnson oftentimes is slow and Brandon Fusco sometimes just gets blown up.
I don’t know what the plans are for Minnesota’s 2013 sixth-round choice Jeff Baca, guard out of UCLA, but obviously he’s not ready or he would have replaced one of these two already.
It is imperative the Vikings address the guard positions in Rounds 2 or 3 or via FA.
Here are some notable names that could be available in those rounds.

Cyril Richardson, Baylor, rSR, 6-5, 340, Round 1: According to Walterfootball.com, “Richardson has been dominant…” He is part of an explosive offense that runs and passes well. Richardson is considered a solid Round 1 pick.
Gabe Jackson, Mississippi State, rSR, 6-3, 340, Round 1-3: Jackson has had a solid season playing well against SEC opponents in LSU and Auburn. I am looking forward to see him play against Alabama in a few weeks. He is well suited for the zone blocking scheme with his quickness and frame.
Zack Martin, Notre Dame, rSr, 6-4, 308, Round 1-3: Martin is another Fighting Irish player that will surely garner the eye of Minnesota’s GM Rick Spielman.
According to Rob Rang of CBSSports.com, He does play with good quickness…He also shows better athleticism than you might think when blocking on the move…With less than ideal length, Martin's NFL future may lie inside at guard.”
David Yankey, Stanford, Sr, 6-5, 311, Round 2-3: According to Walterfootball.com, “Yankey has been superb for Stanford in the early going of the 2013 season. He is a technician and is equally effective as a run- or a pass-blocker.”
Unless the Vikings pursue a free agent, the draft is most likely the place for them to begin replacing both Johnson and Fusco.
All information posted to this slide courtesy of: http://www.walterfootball.com/draft2014OG.php.

3. Defensive Tackle: Frankenstein Experiment Should be Over
Most Vikings fans would admit that since Pat Williams departed, the run defense has never been the same. The “fall into your lap” draft of Sharif Floyd may hopefully pay dividends, but the Vikings sorely need a big run stuffer; something Guion and Evans have yet to prove with consistency. Chase Baker has been a nice surprise, but not a long term solution. The organization seems to want to create a Frankenstein from multiple players, but it is not working. This is a position that must be addressed.
Before I comment on possible picks, let us consider one thing. Is it time for the Vikings to look at going to a 3-4 defense? If that move is made, then they will need to draft players who come from that type of defense in college. Or look to pay someone like B.J. Raji (Packers) who will be a free agent after this year.

Louis Nix, Notre Dame, 6-3, 340, rJr, Round 1: Some have Nix as a Top 20 pick. If that’s the case the Vikings would have to take him when they pick, most likely Top 10. If they are sitting at No. 3, is that too high for Nix, especially when Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA is there?
There is no doubt in Nix’s talent, and this is not a Notre Dame zombie article, but Nix is basically the top DT on everyone’s board.
RaShede Hageman, Minnesota, 6-6, 311, rSr, Round 1-2: Minnesota could stay local with Hageman. Walterfootball.com says, “There are times where Hageman looks unblockable with power and explosion.” And CBSSports.com says, “They don't come much more physically imposing than Hageman, whose broad shoulders, long arms and trim waist have generated comparisons from J.J. Watt to John Henderson.”
You would think that Hageman might be there early Round 2.
Two guys that could go Round 3-5:
Beau Allen, Wisconsin, 6-3, 325, Sr: According to Walterfootball.com, “Allen broke into the starting lineup as a junior and was a solid run-stuffer for the Badgers.” http://www.walterfootball.com/draft2014DT.php.  
DaQuan Jones, Penn State, 6-3, 318: Jones has been a steady force for the Nittany Lions and has been more productive this year without battery mate Jordan Hill who is in the NFL. Jones could continue a trend of recent Lions DT to make the transition to the NFL.

4. Linebacker: Middle or Outside, Pick Your Poison
Erin Henderson is an enigma. One would always have to ask, “Is it the player or the scheme?” For Henderson size and speed is really not an issue. It just seems the guy disappears. It was the same at the OLB position. Statistically he is having a good year. After eight games he has 73 tackles, three sacks, two INTs, but oftentimes gets overwhelmed at the point of attack. He can fill a hole, but taking on the big guys is another story. Source: Vikings.com
Chad Greenway is consistent, and there is no reason to look at his position, but age is soon a factor. He is second in tackles, has two sacks, and two INTs. He is putting together another Pro-Bowl year.
The weak side is an understatement. From Desmond Bishop to Marvin Mitchell, the Vikings defense is in need of someone to step in and take control of this position. Whether that lies with rookie Gerald Hodges is still out for consideration. Either way, something must be addressed.
If Vikings consider a move to the 3-4 defense, they could look at Greenway, Henderson and either Mauti or Cole in the middle, and look to fill the OLB position with Hodges or one of these players below.

Anthony Barr, DE/OLB, UCLA, 6-5, 236, 4.6-40: Barr is considered a Top 10 pick.
If the season ended today, here are the Top (or bottom) 10 teams and their selection spot.
Jaguars, Buccaneers, Vikings, Giants, Rams, Falcons, Texans, Steelers, Eagles, Bills. Of those 10 teams, I would guess that five to six will go defense with their first pick: Vikings, Giants, Falcons, Steelers, Eagles, and possibly Rams.
You would have to think the Jaguars will select Teddy Bridgewater, QB, and Tampa would select Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina. If the Buccaneers go Barr, then the Vikings may go with Clowney as best athlete.
But, we’re talking OLBs. Outside of Barr, here are the next three guys that are ranked as Round One or Two. They are essentially the same height, weight, and speed, so it’s a pick’em based on your preferences.
C.J. Mosley, OLB, Alabama, 6-3, 236
Kyle Van Noy, BYU, 6-3, 235
Vic Beasley, Clemson, 6-3, 235
Rounds Two and Three types are:
Khalil Mack, Buffalo, 6-3, 245
Ryan Shazier, Ohio State, 6-2, 226: He is a junior and may stay for senior year.
Christian Jones, FSU, 6-4, 232
All information posted for this slide courtesy of: http://www.walterfootball.com/draft2014OLB.php.

5. Can Someone Make a Play in the Defensive Backfield?
It’s hard to believe that backup corner A.J. Jefferson has the only INT for a cornerback for the Vikings. The following have the others: Harrison Smith: 2, Erin Henderson: 2, Chad Greenway, 2: Kevin Williams: 1. That is a sad statistic.
I am going to give Xavier Rhodes a pass because he is a rookie, and he has had his ups and downs, but I do like his aggressiveness. Now, for the other side, I am not so sure.
Chris Cook has shown signs, but injuries and off field issues have affected his play. Josh Robinson played his best game against the Cowboys and is the fourth leading tackler. He would seem better suited for the outside, rather than the slot, where his straight line speed cannot match the side to side quickness required. It’s not like Robinson is a first round bust. He was drafted in Round Three and before the combine was seen as a Round Four or Five prospect.
It used to be that there’s a corner around every corner, but in today’s pass happy NFL, the position is now viewed with greater priority. I do not think the Vikings need to address CB in Round One or Two, but beyond that they should look at the best athlete at that position and consider it.
Here are some Round Three and beyond they could consider:
Kyle Fuller, VT, 6-0, 193, 4.52-40: Virginia Tech always fields a good defense and this year Fuller has been steady and consistent. I watch Tech –unfortunately- a lot and he has had some very good games. He played very well against Alabama shutting down receivers and getting an INT.
Justin Gilbert, OSU, 6-0, 194, 4.47-40: Gilbert plays in the pass-happy Big 12. He has been solid this year and has the right attitude to get in the face of opposing wide receivers.
Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State, 5-11, 188, 4.56-40: Michigan State’s defense is stout and Dennard is part of that. He could be a real find in Round Four.
Information posted to this slide courtesy of: http://www.walterfootball.com/draft2014CB.php.

6. Other positions: Running Back and Wide Receiver
It would seem unlikely the Vikings will draft for either position given the necessities at other positions, but if they see a can’t pass him up athlete, it could be one of these positions.
Toby Gearhart will be a free agent and the Vikings will be hard pressed to maintain his services. I would like to see the Vikings draft a speedy third down back should Gearhart depart. A few guys in that category are:
Marion Grice, Arizona State, 6-0, 204, 4.5-40: Grice catches the ball well out of the backfield and is averaging 5.2 YPC this year.
James White, Wisconsin, 5-10, 197, 4.5-40: White is effective and catches the ball well.
Both of these guys are ranked as Rounds Four to Six by Walterfootball.com, so it’s a low risk high reward for the Vikings.
Wide Receiver: It is highly unlikely the Vikings draft a receiver, but if there is some sort of discontent with Jerome Simpson or Jarius Wright, they might be able to gobble up a late round gem. Here are a few receivers ranked from Rounds Three and beyond.
My first guy is Jared Abbrederis, Wisconsin, 6-1, 190, rSr, 4.5-40. I love the way this kid plays receiver. He reminds me of Jordy Nelson. I would love for the Vikings to draft this kid, but it seems unlikely. Abbrederis is considered Round Three prospect. He has been extremely productive for Wisconsin.
According to http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1785868/jared-abbrederis, Abbrederis displays excellent field savvy, tracks the ball very well and makes the proper adjustments to extend and pluck with his quick, soft hands. He has excellent field awareness and always appears to know where he is on the field.”
Here are a few guys that all have similar physical attributes, it depends on your preferences.
Devin Street, Pittsburgh, 6-4, 190, 4.57-40
Davante Adams, Fresno, 6-2, 216, 4.57-40
Donte Moncrief, Ole Miss, 6-3, 226, 4.53-40
DeVante Parker, Louisville, 6-3, 205, 4.6-40
So, there you have it. Yes, it’s early and perhaps this is jumping the gun, but it is just a speculative look and nothing more.
Quick draft day prediction: If the Vikings wind up at pick No. 3 and the Bucs select Barr, I think the Vikings trade down anywhere from five to 10 spots to pick up additional selections.
I think that most of this team’s problems lie with the coaching staff. How can you explain the Chiefs, 49ers, and Seahawks over the last few years or even this year?
Some will say it’s their quarterbacks, but they all have superb defenses, and Kaepernick, Wilson, and Smith all do not have to carry their teams like a Brady or Brees for the most part. I truly believe that if the Vikings defense was ranked in the mid-teens to twenty, the Vikings would be 4-4, at least within ear shot of the playoffs.
Bottom Line: For those who feel it’s players like Ponder, Robinson, Cook, Johnson, etc. just look at the Buccaneers. They had Josh Freeman, still have Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson, Crabtree (TE), a pretty strong offensive line, and a pretty fair defense with tons of high draft picks. This team should be 4-4, but they’re 0-8. Coaching?


I welcome your constructive comments.

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